I was shocked this morning, when I read a note in the online edition of the Mexican newspaper, “El Universal“, that revealed that Mexico, was cited in the section of “Weak and Failing states“, of a report released by the United States Joint Forces command, which is one of the nine combatant commands of the U.S. Department of Defense. What is even more shocking, is the fact that the report considers the possibility of a military intervention into Mexico.
The report is basically a high level overview, about how the Department of Defense, sees the world in the next 25 years, and it makes an evaluation of the possible threats that the United States will face in the future. But what really got my attention was that within the section, “Weak and Failing States”, the report states that Mexico, along with Pakistan, “bear important consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse”.
The reason why the Department of Defense, puts Mexico as a country with a high degree of social disruption, is because of the current war that the Mexican Government is fighting against the drug cartels, and their infiltration inside Mexican law enforcement institutions.
Then the report finishes such section with the following assessment.:
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone. – USJFCOM from the report “The Joint Operating Environment 2008.”
I don’t know what you think, but personally, I think it is an exaggeration from the U.S. Military. While I agree that the drug cartels impose serious threat to the Mexican national security, I don’t think that it is a threat of such size, that can cause a “collapse” of the Mexican state. Moreover, comparing the socio-political conditions in Mexico as sever as the ones Pakistan is facing now, it is outside of a logical proportion.
Take the case of Colombia as a a close, although not similar, example of a country battered by drug cartels. The Colombian state faced huge challenges, it is true, but it never collapsed. Mexico is a much more mature country with a lot more resources to overcome this problem.
The last time the Mexican government collapsed, it was during the 1910 revolution where the government of General Porfirio Diaz was overthrown, followed by a severe civil war. The problem that originated the revolution was the generalized and extreme poverty conditions among the population. Only in a similar scenario of extreme social differences, would be the only reason why I would tend to lean towards a theory of a collapse of the Mexican state, but given what I can see now, it is very unlikely that this happens, not at least within 25 years.
The problem with drug cartels is much more complex, and goes beyond to the scope of the USJFCOM report, that seems to leave the drug cartel’s problem only in Mexican territory. It is pretty obvious that there’s corruption on both sides of the border and there’s violence in both countries as a result of it. Having the most high tech border in the world, it is hard to believe that enormous amounts of drug can cross the U.S. border so easily, only an enormous degree of corruption in the U.S. customs system can make this possible.
I remember when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, I saw a note in the news that, since New Orleans was isolated for such a long time, local authorities were concerned for the high number of drug addicts in the city, that were not getting their drug doses and they were worried that they would start causing serious problems in the population, so what does it mean? I guess it means that the U.S. government is aware of the drug problem, but somehow, it permits the illegal traffic of drugs, as long it is done in an “orderly” manner. The same thing happens with illegal immigration, the U.S. government know of the problem, but they seem to manage it, instead of stopping it, as they know there is demand of both drugs and illegal immigrants.
So, I hope that the new administration lead by President Elect Obama, can change this view of the drugs issue, inside the Pentagon. We all know the problem is serious, and it requires something else than a military intervention in a foreign country to solve it. If drugs were not demanded in the U.S. there would be no business for drug cartels in Mexico and South America, so such a big problem requires a lot of intelligence from both sides.
Tags: Department of Defense, Drug Cartels, mexico, Military, Pentagon, USJFCOM
